Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 3.474159 4.106487 4.808661 5.644417 6.610191 7.689213 8.984098
2025-07-20 2.545279 3.397976 4.450667 5.837263 7.606013 9.776223 12.628826
2025-07-27 1.984643 2.938793 4.226540 6.070945 8.620071 11.990221 16.748093
2025-08-03 1.546347 2.509910 3.916054 6.081088 9.284420 13.792868 20.545295
2025-08-10 1.186808 2.096556 3.522412 5.865699 9.549429 15.026814 23.662764
2025-08-17 0.911369 1.743434 3.137258 5.569583 9.609963 15.921933 26.339585
2025-08-24 0.741109 1.524648 2.918659 5.485562 9.962710 17.266552 29.810261
2025-08-31 0.613658 1.352131 2.742173 5.432417 10.339552 18.666425 33.489767
2025-09-07 0.546223 1.279272 2.729496 5.661077 11.219957 20.977634 38.888903
2025-09-14 0.469191 1.168476 2.622441 5.691121 11.736115 22.703500 43.442997
2025-09-21 0.404291 1.068727 2.518074 5.705763 12.216397 24.401898 48.095613
2025-09-28 0.347305 0.973602 2.405284 5.682531 12.613031 25.975916 52.656059
2025-10-05 0.332186 0.979095 2.517854 6.160786 14.092037 29.767324 61.757564
2025-10-12 0.299314 0.932110 2.503965 6.363387 15.033127 32.627272 69.381171
2025-10-19 0.273073 0.896589 2.510847 6.613771 16.106334 35.853679 78.013166
2025-10-26 0.238014 0.827149 2.421229 6.623887 16.653507 38.066093 84.828774
2025-11-02 0.197708 0.730790 2.243476 6.390761 16.619776 39.064279 89.262548
2025-11-09 0.160949 0.634290 2.044952 6.070483 16.336937 39.494744 92.542893
2025-11-16 0.138002 0.576374 1.941708 5.979578 16.587363 41.104933 98.459655
2025-11-23 0.119460 0.528071 1.856328 5.922085 16.910613 42.904093 104.934657
2025-11-30 0.111440 0.516244 1.879095 6.169365 18.034409 46.631230 115.975452
2025-12-07 0.099053 0.483619 1.829931 6.201849 18.602984 49.111661 124.398263
2025-12-14 0.087856 0.452132 1.777971 6.217679 19.128827 51.536866 132.887930